# Most reasoning errors are detectable with a small recurring set of checks <div class="pills-container"><span class="pill">Last Updated: April 2026</span></div> The failure modes in arguments and beliefs are not infinitely varied. Most errors cluster around a few recurring patterns: [[Most arguments fail in the causal chain, not at the premises|the causal chain that breaks in the middle]]; [[Identifying the real crux requires going below the stated disagreement|the disagreement that's actually about a deeper unresolved crux]]; [[An unfalsifiable belief is rationalization, not reasoning|the belief that's unfalsifiable and therefore protected rather than evaluated]]; [[Base rate checks prevent treating common patterns as novel insights|the case treated as novel that has a strong base rate behind it]]. This is practically useful because a small set of checks, applied consistently, catches most of the errors worth catching. The checks don't guarantee correct conclusions — they locate where errors most often hide. The same discipline that catches reasoning errors also underlies [[Generalizations are bounded reductions, not descriptions of reality|skepticism about generalizations]] and [[Everything not a law of physics is a shared belief subject to revision|the revisability of shared beliefs]]. - [[Most arguments fail in the causal chain, not at the premises]] - [[Identifying the real crux requires going below the stated disagreement]] - [[An unfalsifiable belief is rationalization, not reasoning]] - [[Base rate checks prevent treating common patterns as novel insights]] - [[Generalizations are bounded reductions, not descriptions of reality]] - [[Any sufficiently strong incentive attracts strategic behavior]] - [[Mastery in any domain signals capacity to acquire hard skills, not domain knowledge]] - [[Everything not a law of physics is a shared belief subject to revision]]